The Independent



 What is this war for?

 14 October 2001

 Now that the bombing of Afghanistan has started, the world feels even less
 safe than it did a week ago. The international coalition is more fragile.
 Moderate Muslims ­ some of them in this country ­ are now expressing their
 alarm. Osama bin Laden appears even more elusively powerful than he did
 before. Without the military action, Mr bin Laden would have had no reason to
 broadcast his sinisterly effective videos. The bombs have given him back his
 voice.

 This does not mean that the military option is doomed to fail. After a single
 week such a judgement would be premature. But it does mean that President
 Bush and Tony Blair are under an even greater obligation to spell out their
 objectives more clearly. At the moment there is only hazy confusion.

 In our interview today on page 12, Clare Short, the International Development
 Secretary, says that the military action must be brought to "an elegant end as
 quickly as possible". That is surely the hope of many people throughout the
 West.

 But senior officials in the US have warned that the struggle could last for
 months, and that Mr bin Laden may not be found for a year or two. In which
 case what is the precise aim of the military action? The British government
 seeks the replacement of the Taliban with an "inclusive" administration
 established under the auspices of the UN. As Ms Short makes clear in our
 interview, it rejects the option of the Northern Alliance forming a government.
 Yet there are some reports from the US that President Bush has not
 necessarily ruled out such an outcome.

 The confusion does not appear to be part of a deliberate strategy aimed at
 wrong-footing opponents and keeping the fragile coalition in place. The lack of
 clarity arises because the leaders do not appear to be clear, or indeed united,
 about the endgame. Last week Mr Blair emphasised with commendable speed
 during his trip to the Middle East that the aims did not extend beyond
 Afghanistan. Although he went on to qualify this statement by stating that he
 was referring to "this phase" of the military action, he did not rule out a wider
 campaign altogether.

 President Bush and Mr Blair are taking great risks in bombing Afghanistan.
 They will be taking even more if, and when, a land war starts. They need to be
 clearer about why they think the risks are worth taking.